“Markov Processes also examined the relationship between volatility and performance of all 700 funds over both periods. It found that conservatively constructed funds that exhibited lower volatility (beta) than the market were more consistently top-ranked in the first period, which included the financial crisis. But higher beta (more volatile) funds tended to be more prominent among the better performers in the later 10-year period when the crisis had faded. Markov found a “near linear relationship” between funds’ risk-adjusted returns rankings and performance since the crisis.” Read the full article here (subscription required).
MPI solutions and research are frequently featured in a number of financial and investment media outlets.
“Low beta funds have seen their Morningstar ratings drop significantly since the tail end of the 2008 financial crisis fell out of the 10-year lookback window used to rate performance. According to research by Markov Processes International, nearly 15% of US equity funds saw their 10-year Morningstar ratings change by at least two stars in the 12 months to the end of April – a 500% increase over the prior year.” Read the full article here. (subscription required)
“Quantitative expert Michael Markov, co-founder of New Jersey-based Markov Processes International, points out that at the end of 2017, the S&P 500 had averaged annualised returns of 8.5 per cent over the previous 10 years – perfectly healthy, if undramatic, returns. By February 2019, however, 10-year annualised returns had almost doubled to 16.7 per cent. Casual investors who noticed the sudden jump in 10-year returns might think 2018 was a spectacularly good year for stock markets, but that’s not the case at all, with indices actually slipping last year.” Read the full article here.
“What is an investor to do when the long view of the market changes, not because of anything happening now, but because of events that took place a decade or more ago?… Michael Markov, a founder of the research firm Markov Processes International, whose studies brought the significance of the fluctuating 10-year returns to my attention, said that nothing had happened lately to make investing a better long-term bet.” Read the full article here. (subscription required)
“Bowdoin posted an 8.8 percent average annual return over the 10 years that ended June 30, handily beating the 6 percent average for all college endowments with assets of more than $1 billion, according to a national study. The school also outperformed all eight Ivy League endowments, none of which managed to beat the 8.1 percent average annual performance of a plain vanilla portfolio consisting of stock and bond indexes, according to Markov Processes International, a research firm.” Read the full article here. (subscription required)
“One way to look at a fund’s performance is by its growth in market value. Another way is to examine its returns. Analysts at Markov Processes International, a global investment research and technology firm, estimated that the fund was performing comparable to the worst-performing Ivy League endowments. One hundred dollars invested in the top-performing Ivy League endowments about a decade ago would be worth roughly $250 now. The Ivy average came in at about $220. The same cash put in the Permanent School Fund would now be valued at about $190. Read the full article here.
“Public pension funds aren’t the only institutions to fail to benefit from the heady promise of alternatives. The performance of Ivy League endowments has trailed a passive portfolio of 60 percent U.S. stocks and 40 percent bonds over the past ten years — and has been more volatile to boot, according to a report from research and analytics provider Markov Processes International.” Read the full article here.
“More than one third (38%) of respondents listed slower growth as the biggest risk in 2019, a significant jump from March, when 12 percent of respondents listed it as the top risk. Two other top investor concerns for 2019 are rising interest rates (29%) and a stock market reversal (21%). The results come on the heels of a separate report from the White House that the US government shutdown could eventually push the US economy into recession if it persists. “What we’re starting to see from investors is a growing interest in so-called uncorrelated strategies like global macro managed futures,” said Rohtas Handa, EVP, Head of Institutional Solutions at MPI in an interview with Opalesque. “There’s a desire to reposition portfolios so that they are insulated if the volatility we experienced in December is a more consistent theme in 2019.”” Read the full article here. (subscription required)
In the 1990s, it pioneered a strategy that has since become the preferred approach for the endowments of many of the continent’s top universities and foundations. The Yale model consists of pouring money into opportunities that aren’t as thoroughly picked over as public stock and bond markets–areas such as timberland, hedge funds and private-equity deals. In theory, this makes sense. Investors should derive a reward for taking on the additional work and risk that goes along with venturing into the dimmer corners of the financial markets. But in practice the Yale model has been inconsistent. It beat a 60/40 approach during its early years; more recently, it’s looked strictly ho-hum. In fact, over the past 10 years, the endowments for Yale and all the other Ivy League schools in the United States failed to match the performance of a standard 60/40 portfolio, according to a recent study by (MPI), an investment research and software firm. Read the full article here. (subscription required)